Oil Demand Set to Rise to Record in 2023

Nearly half the gain will come from China.


Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day this year to a record 101.7 million barrels per day.

That’s according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest oil market report, which outlined that nearly half the gain will come from China following the lifting of its Covid restrictions and that jet fuel will remain the largest source of growth, “up 840,000 barrels per day”.

“This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to reach 101.7 million barrels per day, the highest ever, tightening the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions,” the IEA noted in the report.

“China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain,” the IEA added.

In the report, the IEA stated that world oil supply growth is set to slow to one million barrels per day following last year’s OPEC+ led growth of 4.7 million barrels per day.

“An overall non-OPEC+ rise of 1.9 million barrels per day will be tempered by an OPEC+ drop of 870,000 barrels per day, due to expected declines in Russia,” the IEA report said.

“The U.S. ranks as the world’s leading source of supply growth and, along with Canada, Brazil and Guyana, hits an annual production record for a second straight year,” the report added.

In its previous oil market report, which was released last month, the IEA increased its 2023 oil demand growth forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The IEA oil market report before that pegged 2023 oil demand growth at 1.6 million barrels per day.

China’s confirmed weekly Covid-19 cases dropped 25.91 percent from the week commencing January 2 to the week commencing January 9, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). Prior to the drop, confirmed weekly Covid-19 cases in China had increased for three consecutive weeks, WHO data showed.

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